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  • Heng Kim
  • Posted Articles: 13
  • Last Posted: 2017-05-27 02:00:07
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Give China a Second Chance

2016-07-05 01:40:15

China has experienced economic turmoil to and fro since its transition to market-based economy and devaluation of the yuan, putting it on the bearish side. But it does not imply traders should give up on the Asian nation – at least for now. Here’s why.


Policymakers recognize the reforms to be implemented. Seeing the country’s long-term economic growth potential, People’s Bank of China official needs to implement reforms to make the shift more feasible and sustainable. However, recurring pressures have slowed the pace of reform. Still, policymakers have managed to support growth. They eased the Hukou system that holds the household registration and the one-child policy. Also, they privatized State Owned Enterprises in the country.


Although it is getting back on its course, let us acknowledge the headwinds encompassing the nation. Debt levels (more on these later), excessive leverage, and overcapacity still threaten the economy. If not resolved, these factors can hamper the smooth transition.


Debt level won’t lead to debt crisis. Sure, China has a high debt level that is higher than other emerging market countries. But the nature of the nation’s current debt should not bother anyone in the market. A UBS data showed over 90% of debt load is domestically owned. Now, what do Chinese investors feel about this matter? Chinese people have limited investment choices, which led to the increase in debt level. They either save or invest in debt as capital controls prohibit money from being invested outside the country. Good thing the national savings rate can offset the effects of high debt level. According to World Bank, the gross savings rate has averaged around 45% of gross domestic product for the last two decades.


The Chinese economy still has great growth potential. But don’t expect the country to grow at double-digit rates. Let’s describe China in numbers: 1.3 billion population, real GDP per capita of $8,100, GDP at market prices of $10.35 trillion (as of 2014), and life expectancy is 76 years old.


Among the numbers above, let’s highlight its vast population. The relaxation of its one-child policy and Hukou system has many benefits, including improved labor market, easier movement of people from one area to another, and better household consumption. Combine these three and we will get a better, growing Chinese economy.